This interactive graph from Nate Silver’s statistics and prediction organization, FiveThirtyEight, projects forward different voting blocs into 2016 and how they could affect the election if they vote in the percentages and turnouts as they did in 2012. The tool also factors in demographic changes since 2012 and is a tremendously powerful and insightful tool.
For someone that considers himself a small-government libertarian/conservative, the demographic trends that continue to favor Democrats is alarming. This has to serve as a clarion call that the xenophobic wing can’t extract that much more blood of the white vote turnip, even if it ultimately proves to be a winning formula in 2016, the victory could prove short-lived and perhaps even pyrrhic if it entrenches a culture that can’t make necessary changes for the long run. Growth within the Latino, Black, and Asian American voting blocs is an imperative for long-term viability. This can only come from sensible policies in immigration reform as well as making the compelling case that limited government coupled with welfare and entitlement reform that focuses on jobs and skills growth, criminal justice reform, and support of small business constitute the most effective forms of public policy and that the alternative heavy hand of large government is antithetical to liberty and ultimately the goal of economic progress for these communities.
Indeed, the Paul Ryan and Tim Scott led Summit on Poverty is a step in the right direction, putting much needed conservative focus on the issue of how to reform entitlements so that they are truly oriented towards helping the destitute. There is undoubtedly tremendous scope in the remit of our government to redirect entitlements away from middle class income redistribution and towards a helping hand and economic and job promoting subsidies to the poor. Notably absent from Ryan’s summit out of the current crop pf 2016 Republican candidates were Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, who are apparently banking on the ability to win solely on the back of the white base. Good luck with that.